What Actually Happened in 2025 Robotics | MOONSHOTS
February 20, 2026
By C. Rich
In his essay “Something Big is Happening,” Matt Shumer argues that society has entered a critical “this seems overblown” phase of an artificial intelligence revolution that will be more disruptive than the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing from his experience as an AI startup founder, Shumer warns that the gap between public perception and the current reality of AI capabilities has become dangerously wide. He points to the February 2026 release of models like GPT-5.3 Codex and Claude Opus 4.6 as a watershed moment where AI transitioned from a helpful tool to a system capable of independent judgment, “taste,” and the ability to execute complex, multi-day technical projects without human intervention.
The core of Shumer’s alarm stems from two main observations: the arrival of autonomous “self-improving” cycles and the rapid erosion of cognitive labor. He highlights that current AI models are now instrumental in coding and building their own successors, creating an intelligence feedback loop that is accelerating progress at an exponential rate. Shumer suggests that because AI was trained to code first, specifically to speed up its own development, white-collar professions like law, finance, and medicine are the next immediate targets for displacement. He cites predictions that 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated within one to five years, as AI evolves from completing ten-minute tasks to managing month-long projects independently.
To navigate this shift, Shumer urges a shift from passive observation to aggressive adaptation. He advises professionals to treat AI not as a search engine but as a teammate, suggesting a commitment of one hour per day to push the limits of the most capable paid models. His outlook is a mixture of urgency and pragmatism: while the “downside” involves massive economic disruption and national security risks, the “upside” includes the potential to solve humanity’s greatest medical and scientific challenges in record time. Ultimately, Shumer contends that the only durable advantage in this new era is the willingness to be a “perpetual beginner” and to adopt these tools before the window of competitive advantage closes.
Charles Richard Walker (C. Rich)
Copyright © 2026. “This blog emerged through a dialogue between human reflection and multiple AI systems, each contributing fragments of language and perspective that were woven into the whole.”
