Why AGI Is Close but Not Here Yet | Ray Kurzweil | MOONSHOTS

In 1999, Ray Kurzweil predicted human-level AI by 2029. Stanford’s top AI experts said 100 years. Three years from the deadline, he says two things are still missing: AI that understands physics, and a robot that knows the difference between what goes in the fridge and what goes in the trash.

– LLMs went from unremarkable to world-changing in 12 months. AI now outperforms human doctors at diagnosis by 50%.

– LLMs have only been truly effective for six months, according to Ray. A year ago, "not really all that impressive."

– The Genome Project was 1% done at the halfway mark. One doubling later — done. We’re at that same moment with AGI. 

– Software alone has improved roughly a millionfold over 70 years. Total compute gain = hardware (75,000 trillion fold) × software (million fold).